Panel price stop rise back stability: the future pricing power will be dominated by China

According to the website of sigmaintell, its recently released global IT panel price vane in June indicates that the price level of notebook display panel is at a high level. In order to reduce the cost pressure of the whole machine factory and mitigate the inventory risk, the panel factory continued to adjust the low-end and high-end panel prices in the second quarter. Among them, 21.5 "FHD TN demand is weak, and it is predicted that the price will decrease in June, 23.8" FHD IPS demand is strong, supply and demand are balanced, and the price is predicted to be flat in June. 13.3 prices of "HD TN, 15.6" FHD IPS panel dropped slightly in June.

High panel price in the second quarter

In fact, the panel price of tablet computer has dropped by 2% to 3% in May, mainly due to the weak demand for smart phones. Panel manufacturers transferred the production capacity of smart phone screens to tablet computers, causing the panel price to continue to fall by 1% to 2%. Panel manufacturers point out that the price of mobile phone panel will go down in June. Before the flexible screen can not enter the terminal market immediately, mobile phone manufacturers have turned to 18:9 comprehensive screen, resulting in the decline of the demand for the original size panel.

With the price of small and medium-sized LED panels declining, the price of 32 "LCD TV panels has been rising for 15 months, the longest rise in history. After entering the second quarter in April, the panel demand has increased due to the new products coming into the market, but due to the weak terminal demand and conservative brand procurement stock, the global supply and demand of LCD TV panel has maintained a balance, and most panel prices have stopped rising and stabilized.

According to the home appliance network, the global LED TV shipments in the first quarter declined by 3% year on year, while the domestic TV market shipments declined by 14% year on year. The agency expects that the global LCD TV shipments in 2017 will be 23.4 billion sets, down 2.0% year on year. IHS Markit pointed out that the TV manufacturers have been unable to bear the high cost, the TV industry has fallen into a low ebb, the relationship with the upstream has begun to deepen, and with the continuous piling up of high inventory, the panel price cannot rise in the second quarter, and the 10.5 generation plants of BOE will be put into production in 2019, and the 10.5 generation plants of BOE will be installed in the second half of this year, which is suspected of serious oversupply, and may respond in the second half of this year in advance. Prices will reverse downward, but this is still a year when supply is in short supply.

Analysts expect that the panel price will slow down, which will be transmitted to the small-size TV panel after the small and medium-sized ones such as mobile phones and tablets, and start to fall, while the price of large-size TV panel will remain high. However, some people in the supply chain said that the LCD panel may decline for the first time in June. Due to the existence of product production cycle, it will take about November to map to the product price level.

According to the tracking analysis data of global panel inventory of Qunzhi, the overall inventory of global TV panel manufacturers in the first quarter of 2017 was 1.2 weeks, especially the inventory of 65 inch and other large-scale panels with tight supply was very low. However, with the balance of supply and demand, the overall inventory of panel manufacturers is expected to increase. In the first quarter, the inventory of overseas brands was about 9 weeks, and that of Chinese brands was about 6 weeks. The inventory level was on the high side, and the inventory of factories in the same era also showed a trend of growth. In the first quarter of 2017, the gap of sharp panel and its customers' shipments was quite different. The net inventory increase of Foxconn OEM and sharp brand was close to 1 million units, and Foxconn set the global sales target of 10 million units for sharp.

Industry insiders said that from the perspective of the inventory situation of the whole global TV industry chain, these accumulated inventories are bound to bring more uncertainties to the supply and demand situation in the second half of the year, and the sales peak season in the second half of the year is coming as scheduled. At that time, will panel prices remain as stable as the survey data, and will the sluggish TV market recover due to the peak season? At present, the production capacity of domestic panel manufacturers is steadily increasing, the dependence on Japanese and Korean panel manufacturers will gradually reduce, and the contradiction between domestic panel supply and demand will gradually resolve. The process of home switch between China and South Korea needs a cycle, and the whole machine manufacturers need to bear the pain to exchange the lost bargaining power.

Panel home replacement is a matter of time

At present, the domestic display technology led by BOE is rising rapidly, which provides Chinese terminal manufacturers with bargaining power and discourse power in seeking supply. It is comparable to or even surpasses Korean factory in terms of scale, production, technology or performance, and affects the world pattern in the semiconductor core component industry. With the global color TV market moving to China, more than 70% of the end product manufacturing in the downstream market of the panel occurs in the mainland of China. The advantages of the local market and capacity scale overlap each other. According to the survey data, China will have 15 TV panel production lines by 2020, including 12 8.5 generation lines and 3 10.5 generation lines.

It is understood that at present, 9 of BOE's 11 lines have been put into production, the first 5.5-generation Ordos AMOLED production line invested by BOE in China and the second 5.5-generation Ordos AMOLED production line in the world, "super factory" Chengdu's 6-generation flexible AMOLED line industry has been put into production; 2 8.5-generation lines have been put into production by Huaxing optoelectronics, and the world's highest 11 generation line has been built; the "tianmaping" discussed due to Xiaomi Max has passed the listed company. According to the latest disclosure of Shenzhen Tianma a, the capacity of Tianma's 5th generation AMOLED production line is planned to process 15000 pieces of 5.5th generation 1 / 4 cut OLED evaporated and sealed glass substrates every month. This production line has taken the lead in mass production and shipment to large customers of mobile intelligent terminal brand in 2016; Wuhan Tianma's 6th generation LTPS AMOLED production line has also been lit in April, and both rigid and flexible display screens are lit. Its capacity planning is as follows: Monthly processing of the 6th generation ltpsamoled evaporation plating substrate 30000, is expected to be mass produced this year. The two LTPS lines of g5.5 and G6 owned by Tianma microelectronics also achieved mass production in 2015 and 2016 respectively, and its net profit in the first quarter increased by 147.72% year-on-year.

It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of the establishment of Huaxing photoelectric and other panel factories, sharp 10 generation line has been started, while Korean enterprises are entering the second half of depreciation and amortization of state-owned assets. Similar to BOE, in the query of "put into production is backward", Zhonghua Xingguang Electric Co., Ltd. ranks in the first camp of global LCD panel and becomes the profit cow of TCL. It also makes TCL the only TV enterprise in China that has completed the vertical integration of industrial chain, and its core components are no longer controlled by others.

However, with the rise of China's independent display industry, whether Xiaomi max2 uses the domestic "Tianma screen" has become the focus of discussion among fans. In the past, for mobile phone manufacturers, because of the limited cost, it is not realistic for non flagship or 1000 yuan mobile phones to use the imported screens, while the domestic screen is the best choice made by mobile phone manufacturers after weighing the cost and screen quality. In the past few years, for mobile phone manufacturers, it has been a few years for "worshiping foreign countries and fawning on foreign countries" to avoid talking about domestic screens. It has also been a few years for manufacturers to be ostentatious and have no bargaining power in front of Korean enterprises. It has also been a few years for domestic independent display technology to "suffer humiliation".

According to home appliances.com, there are nearly 15 global mobile screen manufacturers, including 2 in South Korea, 2 in Japan, 4 in Taiwan, and 7 in mainland China. They are: Samsung, BOE, LGD, JDI, Zhonghua yingguan, Tianma, Longteng, Qun Chuang, Hanyu Caijing, sharp, shenchao, Youda, Huaxing, Hehui, CLP panda.

The display panel, together with integrated circuit, oil and iron ore, ranks among the four major imported commodities in China, and now its self-sufficiency rate is close to 60%. The level of domestic independent display technology is at a huge loss and the public's criticism from the side of lagging behind in production, and finally ranks first in the world. It is worth mentioning that Chengdu hi tech Zone alone has gathered panel leading enterprises such as BOE, shentianma, CLP panda, Foxconn, TCL, etc., forming a whole industrial chain from upstream raw materials, midstream display panel to downstream terminal production. Panel people said that the world panel is inclining to Chengdu, once the domestic panel production capacity erupts, the global panel price will no longer be priced by foreign investors.